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71.
Tûba Aktaran‐Kalaycı Christos Alexopoulos Nilay Tanık Argon David Goldsman James R. Wilson 《海军后勤学研究》2007,54(4):397-410
We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007 相似文献
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73.
张承宗 《海军工程大学学报》1996,(1)
提出一种求解二阶线性椭圆形偏微分方程过值问题的新型复级数展开法,并用于求解二维各向异性稳态渗流问题,首先得到了各向异性稳态渗流矩形域、圆形域一般解析解,而且给出数值算例。 相似文献
74.
This article studies coherent systems of heterogenous and statistically dependent components' lifetimes. We present a sufficient and necessary condition for a stochastically longer system lifetime resulted by allocating a single active redundancy. For exchangeable components' lifetimes, allocating the redundancy to the component with more minimal path sets is proved to produce a more reliable system, and for systems with stochastic arrangement increasing components' lifetimes and symmetric structure with respect to two components, allocating the redundancy to the weaker one brings forth a larger reliability. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the theoretical results as well. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 335–345, 2016 相似文献
75.
This article analyzes a capacity/inventory planning problem with a one‐time uncertain demand. There is a long procurement leadtime, but as some partial demand information is revealed, the firm is allowed to cancel some of the original capacity reservation at a certain fee or sell off some inventory at a lower price. The problem can be viewed as a generalization of the classic newsvendor problem and can be found in many applications. One key observation of the analysis is that the dynamic programming formulation of the problem is closely related to a recursion that arises in the study of a far more complex system, a series inventory system with stochastic demand over an infinite horizon. Using this equivalence, we characterize the optimal policy and assess the value of the additional demand information. We also extend the analysis to a richer model of information. Here, demand is driven by an underlying Markov process, representing economic conditions, weather, market competition, and other environmental factors. Interestingly, under this more general model, the connection to the series inventory system is different. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2012 相似文献
76.
基于地磁模式组的舰船消磁电流调整器 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用泰勒多项式的建模方法建立了地磁模式组 ,该模式组能够满足消磁电流调整器的应用要求 ,且具有很好的稳定性 ,均方根偏差很小 ,实际应用也比较方便 .在此基础上 ,提出了基于地磁模式组的无探头消磁电流调整器 ,该消磁电流调整器具有结构简单、可靠性高、水上水下通用及免除抗干扰调整等优点 相似文献
77.
本文借助于 Walsh 级数的分析方法,导出了延时算子,并利用延时算子和 Walsh级数的运算特性给出了一套延时线性系统最优控制的 Walsh 级数分析法,避免了求解 Riccati方程使算法非常简单。 相似文献
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79.
It is shown, in this note, that the right spread order and the increasing convex order are both preserved under the taking of random maxima, and the total time on test transform order and the increasing concave order are preserved under the taking of random minima. Some inequalities and preservation properties in reliability and economics are given as applications. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献
80.
We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007. 相似文献